View the Stakes for UFC FN151 under:
Shane Burgos Free Breakdown
At 28 decades old, Burgos is coming into his prime as he takes on the veteran Cub Swanson. He could have a significant advantage advantage of 5.5 inches and is overall a much larger featherweight. At the pocket Burgos is vastly more technical with crisp combinations and harmful power. He’s a good camp but his main weakness seems to be shield, where he’s left himself exposed to strikes and been hurt in several recent fights.
Swanson is a much more unorthadox and crazy fighter and his style looks to fight against more specialized competition. He’s on a significant losing streak where he has looked flat and vulnerable in each fight. It seems Cub is on a a downturn which is not surprising given his own era in a division where speed is king. It should be noted that many of Cub’s losses have begun to top 10 resistance, but it’s his lack of competitiveness which raise a red flag.
This battle ought to be entertaining with the two men willing to stand and trade. In the unlikely event that Swanson can reignite his early career performances that this might be a close fight, but we expect to see a falling veteran who can’t keep up with the more technical young talent. Back Burgos to get the win here, likely in the distance.Brad Katona Breakdown
Katona, winner of TUF and the hometown fighter is taking on the relentless Merab Dvalishvili. Katona has much better striking than his opponent and holds a BJJ blackbelt. In his career he has not revealed the best initial takedown defense however he uses his grappling talents to continue being dangerous and create scrambles. Thus far he’s shown a strong ability to contact his feet. Dvalishvili is basic standing, largely throwing his hand to set up level fluctuations. He averages a absurd quantity of takedown efforts each fight, compounded by the fact he struggles to maintain top position for extended periods.
In this fight it is possible Dvalishvili does land takedowns but Katona has lots of skills to avoid getting stuck onto his spine. More time on the toes for Katona means he will be in control, landing damage and accumulating rounds. This should be a close battle where the value lies with the neighborhood underdog.
Bet = Katona at 2.65 (+165) chances. Risk 2 Units to win 3.30 Units.
Nordine Taleb Breakdown
Kyle Prepolec is coming to this fight on short notice and united with the fact he is fighting up a branch his chances look slim. Taleb is a well rounded fighter who has a significant edge in all areas of the battle. On the toes he’s defensively sound and fights long using his jab, straight punches and leg kicks to set the distance. Prepolec likes to get in near but leaves himself open when entering the pocket. His strikes are slower and he ought to be open to counters in Taleb. Size will also be a large element where Prepolec has shown a tendency to get out muscled in the grappling department by much smaller and not as gifted fighters than Taleb. This is likely his safest route to success where he probably dominates to set up a finish. On short notice introduction there are simply too many obstacles to conquer and whilst the chances are brief, this looks to be a simple win.
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