Selecting the winner of the Kentucky Derby is easy right? Simply choose the preferred and then after the two most exciting moments in sports only go cash your tickets.
That plan has worked in a row, beginning with Orb in 2013, who returned $12.80 for a $2 win bet, and including last year at which Justify got the work done as the preferred, returning his backers $7.80. What the hell is happening?
From 2005 until 2012 the typical win mutual was $41, and we had two mad winners that paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) at 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) at 2009.
This year Game Winner is the 9-2 morning line favorite after the scrape of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee would be the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, leading to him winning the Eclipse Award for high juvenile of 2018. He’s lost both of his starts this year, but set in strong efforts in runner up finishes.
He is a logical favorite but has to cope with two of his stablemates that both have strong credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They’re the co-second options on the morning line at 5-1.
Yes, Hall of fame Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the previous four years will be sending out the top three betting choices in the race. It will be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a coach has had the three betting choices.
That is a lot of firepower for a single barn and which makes it just a little less probable a longshot is going to win this year’s edition.
But they still need to conduct the race. On Kentucky Oaks Day, we saw the champion juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat chances of 1-5 at the Edgewood (G3).
So, let us search for three Derby longshots that might have an Opportunity to be in the search when they come in the stretch beneath the Twin Spires on Saturday evening:
Tacitus (8-1)
Tacitus is coming from a good looking win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old campaign by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden on a wet track and has a strong off course pedigree. He is by Tapit and also the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who earned $2.7 million and has been the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who hasn’t had some success in the Derby (0 8, the ideal finish with Hofburg last year (seventh). The Wood has not been a successful race within the previous 15 decades or so. We must go back to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Derby winner to prep there. Overall 20 Derby winners utilized the Wood as a prep. The colt looks as if he has some upside and should find a fantastic trip sitting mid-range with a perfect post.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb from the slop. I have enjoyed this colt since his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to shoot in the Mucho Macho Man within his three-year-old introduction, checking in fourth, also bounced back with a clever win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 9-1.
Last out in the Florida Derby (G1) he had been bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the pack behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He desires pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will find this guy close enough he will have an impact late.
Spinoff (30-1)
Trained by Todd Pletcher with two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming at 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying beneath the radar. He was third in the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has put in two remarkable efforts this year. He gathered first-level allowance company by 11 3/4 spans at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. He then left his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he monitored the early pace, took over the lead heading for home but got run down by By My Standards. He’s bred to like a wet track and will be a big cost. The exterior post is not ideal, but he has sufficient tactical speed to be in the mix .
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will soon be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark along with his entire card reports with selections, evaluation, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major buys are available daily at turfnsport.com.
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